JULY 2024 COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET UPDATE
JULY 2024 COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET UPDATE
SUMMARY
Auction volume increased notably in June 2024, but pricing decreased only moderately. Retail volume was depressed, but pricing changed minimally.
CLASS 8 AUCTION UPDATE
A substantial volume of Class 8 sleeper tractors was sold in June, which is not unusual for the month. Pricing decreased moderately compared to May, but the second quarter saw very little depreciation on average.
Looking at late-model sleeper tractors, average pricing for our benchmark truck in June was:
- Model year 2021: $43,669; $3,128 (6.7%) lower than May
- Model year 2020: $37,962; $2,716 (7.7%) higher than May
- Model year 2019: $26,578; $2,120 (6.4%) lower than May
- Model year 2018: $16,755; $12,328 (42.4%) lower than May
The unusual drop in model-year 2018 selling prices is due to a return to a more normal mix of make, model, and specs after an anomalous May. Otherwise, in June, selling prices for four- to six-year-old sleepers dipped 2.3% compared to May, ending a three-month run of essentially unchanged values. Values for this age group are about 8% lower than the strong pre-pandemic period of 2018 in nominal figures, or about 24% lower if adjusted for inflation. Current pricing is about 43% higher than the last market nadir in late 2019, or about 18% higher if adjusted for inflation. Depreciation in 2024 is averaging 3.5% per month, but the entirety of that depreciation occurred in the January-March period.
Price stability in an oversupplied market suggests a market floor. In the absence of any notably negative economic data, we can expect minimal to moderate depreciation in the short term.
