TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts Vehicle Sales for June and Q2 2020
New and used vehicle sales continue to recover from April lows
SANTA MONICA, Calif., (June 25, 2020) – ALG, Inc., a subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc. and the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,098,960 units in June 2020, down 24% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 13 million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,014,927 units, a decrease of 15% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
“Automotive retail continues to show positive momentum, rebounding from April lows and performing better than initially expected as states continue to ease restrictions,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Fleet is now also beginning to show signs of recovery, up twenty-two percent from last month, and we are also seeing significant improvement in the used market, where we expect used car sales to be up sixteen percent month over month.”
“While used vehicle sales were initially hit harder than new vehicles due to COVID-19 impact, we expect that trend to reverse itself now due to new car inventory shortfalls. Used vehicle inventory is always much larger than new and lease returns have been picking back up, adding a flood of two to three-year-old vehicles back into the used market. Additionally, there’s attractive financing and lower price points which are all helping spur increased demand in the used vehicle market,” added Lyman.
Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG)
- Total retail sales for June 2020 are expected to be down 15% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days and up 1.5% from May 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for June 2020 are expected to be down 68% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days and up 22% from May 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Total SAAR is expected to decrease 25% from a year ago from 17.2 million units to 13 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for June 2020 are expected to reach 2,719,074, down 20% from a year ago and up 16% from May 2020.
- The average interest rates on new vehicle loans is 5.99%
“Inventory availability will continue to affect new vehicle sales as a result of production pauses related to COVID-19,” said Nick Woolard Director of OEM and Affinity Partner Analytics at TrueCar. “With no inventory cushion, Tesla’s build-to-order model is expected to result in the brand getting hit the hardest month-over month with production stops completely shutting down order fulfillment. Toyota has also experienced outsized retail sales decline this month compared with other brands due to inventory availability, especially on their popular Toyota Tacoma. In the short-term consumers will likely have a harder time finding exact trims and colors for certain vehicles across the board due to these supply shortages.”
Quarterly Insights: (Forecast by ALG)
- Total unit sales for Q2 are expected to be down 34% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and down 19% from Q1 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Total retail sales for Q2 are expected to be down 26% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and down 5% from Q1 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
June 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume.
Total Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | Jun 2020 Forecast | Jun 2019 Actual | May 2020 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | MoM % Change | MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 27,775 | 34,982 | 20,052 | -20.6% | -17.4% | 38.5% | 44.1% |
| Daimler | 18,930 | 29,275 | 20,958 | -35.3% | -32.8% | -9.7% | -6.1% |
| FCA | 138,478 | 206,083 | 137,119 | -32.8% | -30.1% | 1.0% | 5.0% |
| Ford | 150,925 | 218,691 | 154,775 | -31.0% | -28.2% | -2.5% | 1.4% |
| GM | 171,626 | 249,182 | 175,921 | -31.1% | -28.4% | -2.4% | 1.5% |
| Honda | 107,737 | 135,901 | 120,977 | -20.7% | -17.6% | -10.9% | -7.4% |
| Hyundai | 60,585 | 66,089 | 58,969 | -8.3% | -4.7% | 2.7% | 6.8% |
| Kia | 48,148 | 56,801 | 45,817 | -15.2% | -11.8% | 5.1% | 9.3% |
| Nissan | 68,469 | 123,504 | 65,349 | -44.6% | -42.3% | 4.8% | 9.0% |
| Subaru | 58,873 | 61,511 | 51,988 | -4.3% | -0.5% | 13.2% | 17.8% |
| Tesla | 6,561 | 14,400 | 8,150 | -54.4% | -52.6% | -19.5% | -16.3% |
| Toyota | 147,675 | 202,352 | 163,421 | -27.0% | -24.1% | -9.6% | -6.0% |
| Volkswagen Group | 46,683 | 56,697 | 42,205 | -17.7% | -14.4% | 10.6% | 15.0% |
| Industry | 1,098,960 | 1,509,963 | 1,111,723 | -27.2% | -24.3% | -1.1% | 2.8% |
Retail Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | Jun 2020 Forecast | Jun 2019 Actual | May 2020 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | MoM % Change | MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 27,409 | 33,798 | 19,709 | -18.9% | -15.7% | 39.1% | 44.6% |
| Daimler | 17,985 | 27,076 | 20,250 | -33.6% | -30.9% | -11.2% | -7.6% |
| FCA | 124,062 | 158,176 | 131,240 | -21.6% | -18.4% | -5.5% | -1.7% |
| Ford | 121,598 | 150,291 | 135,188 | -19.1% | -15.9% | -10.1% | -6.5% |
| GM | 157,258 | 195,488 | 156,060 | -19.6% | -16.3% | 0.8% | 4.8% |
| Honda | 107,129 | 134,685 | 120,021 | -20.5% | -17.3% | -10.7% | -7.2% |
| Hyundai | 57,708 | 55,462 | 55,846 | 4.0% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 7.5% |
| Kia | 46,920 | 51,223 | 43,317 | -8.4% | -4.7% | 8.3% | 12.7% |
| Nissan | 62,305 | 85,211 | 58,900 | -26.9% | -24.0% | 5.8% | 10.0% |
| Subaru | 53,753 | 55,415 | 47,969 | -3.0% | 0.9% | 12.1% | 16.5% |
| Tesla | 6,549 | 14,400 | 8,150 | -54.5% | -52.7% | -19.6% | -16.4% |
| Toyota | 142,789 | 179,346 | 158,423 | -20.4% | -17.2% | -9.9% | -6.3% |
| Volkswagen Group | 44,523 | 49,248 | 40,270 | -9.6% | -6.0% | 10.6% | 15.0% |
| Industry | 1,014,927 | 1,236,347 | 1,040,054 | -17.9% | -14.6% | -2.4% | 1.5% |
Fleet Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | Jun 2020 Forecast | Jun 2019 Actual | May 2020 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | MoM % Change | MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 366 | 1,184 | 343 | -69.0% | -67.8% | 6.8% | 11.0% |
| Daimler | 944 | 2,199 | 708 | -57.1% | -55.3% | 33.5% | 38.8% |
| FCA | 14,417 | 47,907 | 5,879 | -69.9% | -68.7% | 145.2% | 155.0% |
| Ford | 29,327 | 68,400 | 19,587 | -57.1% | -55.4% | 49.7% | 55.7% |
| GM | 14,369 | 53,694 | 19,861 | -73.2% | -72.2% | -27.7% | -24.8% |
| Honda | 608 | 1,216 | 956 | -50.0% | -48.0% | -36.4% | -33.8% |
| Hyundai | 2,877 | 10,627 | 3,123 | -72.9% | -71.8% | -7.9% | -4.2% |
| Kia | 1,227 | 5,578 | 2,500 | -78.0% | -77.1% | -50.9% | -49.0% |
| Nissan | 6,164 | 38,293 | 6,449 | -83.9% | -83.3% | -4.4% | -0.6% |
| Subaru | 5,120 | 6,096 | 4,019 | -16.0% | -12.6% | 27.4% | 32.5% |
| Tesla | 12 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Toyota | 4,886 | 23,006 | 4,998 | -78.8% | -77.9% | -2.2% | 1.7% |
| Volkswagen Group | 2,159 | 7,449 | 1,935 | -71.0% | -69.9% | 11.6% | 16.0% |
| Industry | 84,033 | 273,616 | 71,669 | -69.3% | -68.1% | 17.3% | 21.9% |
Fleet Penetration
| Manufacturer | Jun 2020 Forecast | Jun 2019 Actual | May 2020 Actual | YoY % Change | MoM % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 1.3% | 3.4% | 1.7% | -61.0% | -22.9% |
| Daimler | 5.0% | 7.5% | 3.4% | -33.6% | 47.8% |
| FCA | 10.4% | 23.2% | 4.3% | -55.2% | 142.8% |
| Ford | 19.4% | 31.3% | 12.7% | -37.9% | 53.5% |
| GM | 8.4% | 21.5% | 11.3% | -61.1% | -25.8% |
| Honda | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | -36.9% | -28.6% |
| Hyundai | 4.7% | 16.1% | 5.3% | -70.5% | -10.3% |
| Kia | 2.5% | 9.8% | 5.5% | -74.0% | -53.3% |
| Nissan | 9.0% | 31.0% | 9.9% | -71.0% | -8.8% |
| Subaru | 8.7% | 9.9% | 7.7% | -12.2% | 12.5% |
| Tesla | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - | - |
| Toyota | 3.3% | 11.4% | 3.1% | -70.9% | 8.2% |
| Volkswagen Group | 4.6% | 13.1% | 4.6% | -64.8% | 0.9% |
| Industry | 7.6% | 18.1% | 6.4% | -57.8% | 18.6% |
Total Market Share
| Manufacturer | Jun 2020 Forecast | Jun 2019 Actual | May 2020 Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% |
| Daimler | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| FCA | 12.6% | 13.6% | 12.3% |
| Ford | 13.7% | 14.5% | 13.9% |
| GM | 15.6% | 16.5% | 15.8% |
| Honda | 9.8% | 9.0% | 10.9% |
| Hyundai | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% |
| Kia | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| Nissan | 6.2% | 8.2% | 5.9% |
| Subaru | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% |
| Tesla | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Toyota | 13.4% | 13.4% | 14.7% |
| Volkswagen Group | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
Retail Market Share
| Manufacturer | Jun 2020 Forecast | Jun 2019 Actual | May 2020 Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.9% |
| Daimler | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% |
| FCA | 12.2% | 12.8% | 12.6% |
| Ford | 12.0% | 12.2% | 13.0% |
| GM | 15.5% | 15.8% | 15.0% |
| Honda | 10.6% | 10.9% | 11.5% |
| Hyundai | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% |
| Kia | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% |
| Nissan | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% |
| Subaru | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% |
| Tesla | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Toyota | 14.1% | 14.5% | 15.2% |
| Volkswagen Group | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% |
Quarterly Tables
Total Unit Sales, Quarterly
| Manufacturer | Q2 2020 | Q2 2019 | Q1 2020 | YoY % Change | YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | QoQ % Change | QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 55,983 | 91,230 | 65,237 | -38.6% | -38.6% | -14.2% | -15.3% |
| Daimler | 51,166 | 85,039 | 69,846 | -39.8% | -39.8% | -26.7% | -27.7% |
| FCA | 368,587 | 600,434 | 445,345 | -38.6% | -38.6% | -17.2% | -18.3% |
| Ford | 425,291 | 644,498 | 529,556 | -34.0% | -34.0% | -19.7% | -20.7% |
| GM | 485,120 | 744,316 | 643,541 | -34.8% | -34.8% | -24.6% | -25.6% |
| Honda | 286,465 | 407,208 | 298,726 | -29.7% | -29.7% | -4.1% | -5.3% |
| Hyundai | 154,328 | 191,548 | 134,700 | -19.4% | -19.4% | 14.6% | 13.1% |
| Kia | 125,670 | 168,248 | 137,851 | -25.3% | -25.3% | -8.8% | -10.0% |
| Nissan | 180,507 | 351,185 | 256,703 | -48.6% | -48.6% | -29.7% | -30.6% |
| Subaru | 141,481 | 182,771 | 130,590 | -22.6% | -22.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% |
| Tesla | 18,428 | 36,300 | 56,200 | -49.2% | -49.2% | -67.2% | -67.6% |
| Toyota | 396,259 | 608,392 | 494,668 | -34.9% | -34.9% | -19.9% | -20.9% |
| Volkswagen Group | 116,967 | 167,694 | 128,935 | -30.2% | -30.2% | -9.3% | -10.5% |
| Industry | 2,921,510 | 4,431,851 | 3,548,037 | -34.1% | -34.1% | -17.7% | -18.7% |
Retail Unit Sales, Quarterly
| Manufacturer | Q2 2020 | Q2 2019 | Q1 2020 | YoY % Change | YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | QoQ % Change | QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 55,245 | 88,362 | 59,172 | -37.5% | -37.5% | -6.6% | -7.8% |
| Daimler | 48,613 | 79,056 | 64,985 | -38.5% | -38.5% | -25.2% | -26.2% |
| FCA | 330,214 | 438,080 | 325,269 | -24.6% | -24.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Ford | 342,650 | 427,648 | 334,639 | -19.9% | -19.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| GM | 444,506 | 601,826 | 447,663 | -26.1% | -26.1% | -0.7% | -2.0% |
| Honda | 284,849 | 402,815 | 293,904 | -29.3% | -29.3% | -3.1% | -4.3% |
| Hyundai | 146,999 | 148,388 | 107,112 | -0.9% | -0.9% | 37.2% | 35.5% |
| Kia | 122,467 | 141,334 | 116,732 | -13.3% | -13.3% | 4.9% | 3.6% |
| Nissan | 164,256 | 237,538 | 177,572 | -30.9% | -30.9% | -7.5% | -8.7% |
| Subaru | 129,176 | 165,116 | 123,192 | -21.8% | -21.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% |
| Tesla | 18,321 | 36,300 | 56,200 | -49.5% | -49.5% | -67.4% | -67.8% |
| Toyota | 383,148 | 535,550 | 420,712 | -28.5% | -28.5% | -8.9% | -10.1% |
| Volkswagen Group | 111,556 | 149,356 | 113,520 | -25.3% | -25.3% | -1.7% | -3.0% |
| Industry | 2,664,766 | 3,588,832 | 2,761,404 | -25.7% | -25.7% | -3.5% | -4.8% |
Total Market Share, Quarterly
| Manufacturer | Q2 2020 | Q2 2019 | Q1 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Daimler | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% |
| FCA | 12.6% | 13.5% | 12.6% |
| Ford | 14.6% | 14.5% | 14.9% |
| GM | 16.6% | 16.8% | 18.1% |
| Honda | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.4% |
| Hyundai | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% |
| Kia | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% |
| Nissan | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% |
| Subaru | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% |
| Tesla | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.6% |
| Toyota | 13.6% | 13.7% | 13.9% |
| Volkswagen Group | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% |
Retail Market Share, Quarterly
| Manufacturer | Q2 2020 | Q2 2019 | Q1 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% |
| Daimler | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% |
| FCA | 12.4% | 12.2% | 11.8% |
| Ford | 12.9% | 11.9% | 12.1% |
| GM | 16.7% | 16.8% | 16.2% |
| Honda | 10.7% | 11.2% | 10.6% |
| Hyundai | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% |
| Kia | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% |
| Nissan | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% |
| Subaru | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% |
| Tesla | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% |
| Toyota | 14.4% | 14.9% | 15.2% |
| Volkswagen Group | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in Canada since 1981.
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry’s most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what’s a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free), Email: pr@truecar.com.
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