Uncertainty Ratchets Up as Market Continues to Cool

CLASS 8 AUCTION UPDATE

The auction market opened back up in February 2023 with healthy volume. Buyers are still paying a premium for trucks with low mileage.

Looking at two- to six-year-old trucks, average pricing for our benchmark truck in February was:
Model year 2021: $122,000; no basis of comparison with January
Model year 2020: $80,100; $1,650 (2.0%) lower than January
Model year 2019: $55,018; $6,800 (11.0%) lower than January
Model year 2018: $41,139; $25 (0.3%) higher than January
Model year 2017: $29,215; $8,035 (21.6%) lower than January

In February, late-model trucks averaged 4.5% less money than January, and 34.9% less money than February 2022. In 2023 to date, late-model sleepers are bringing 39.2% less money than the same period of 2022. Monthly depreciation in 2023 is currently averaging 4.5%. Trucks with under 400,000 miles continue to bring a substantial premium.

The newest model years available in the marketplace are bringing about 55% more money than the strong pre-pandemic period of 2018, assuming average mileage per year. If we adjust values over time to 2023 dollars, that difference drops to about 37%.

See the graphs on the next page and the Forecast section at the end of this document for additional analysis.