Another Month, Another Record for Class 8 Retail Pricing

Another month, another record in pricing. Supply was tighter than ever in September, and predictions of a very tight freight market going into the holidays bolstered demand.

The average sleeper tractor retailed in September was 74 months old, had 459,393 miles, and brought $78,207. Compared to August, this average sleeper was one month older, had 6,506 (1.4%) more miles, and brought $3,788 (5.1%) more money. Compared to September 2020, this average sleeper was 5 months older, had 10,465 (2.2%) fewer miles, and brought $36,141 (85.9%) more money.

Looking at trucks two to six years of age, September’s average pricing was as follows:

• Model year 2020: $130,748; $11,196 (9.4%) higher than August
• Model year 2019: $104,271; $2,062 (2.0%) higher than August
• Model year 2018: $85,251; $2,608 (3.2%) higher than August
• Model year 2017: $70,043; $3,504 (5.3%) higher than August
• Model year 2016: $55,747; $3,565 (6.8%) higher than August

Month-over-month, late-model trucks brought 3.3% more money. In the first 9 months of 2021, late-model trucks were 30.6% ahead of the same period of 2020, and 10.4% ahead of the same period of 2019. On average, late-model trucks have appreciated 2.4% per month in 2021.

Retail inquiries were healthy in September, but many potential buyers walked away empty-handed as there were just not enough trucks available to sell. Dealers retailed an average of 4.4 trucks per rooftop in September, 0.4 truck lower than August. Year-over-year, the first 9 months of 2021 are running 0.8 truck ahead of the same period of 2020, and 0.8 truck higher than the same period of 2019.

Strong used truck pricing into 2022 is essentially guaranteed. Our most recent residual forecast update (available by subscription) was adjusted upward for multiple periods. This means we predict trucks will be worth more than originally forecast earlier in the year. The main factor behind this revision is the ongoing perfect storm of parts shortages, shipping bottlenecks, and unusually strong consumer purchasing behavior, all in place longer than we predicted. Stay tuned for additional thoughts on this topic on the October edition of our Guidelines market report, available shortly.