TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Vehicle Sales Continue to Bounce Back with Used Vehicle Sales Up Year-Over-Year for August 2020
SANTA MONICA, Calif., (August 25, 2020) – ALG, Inc., a subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc. and the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,303,826 units in August 2020, down 15% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 15 million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,187,140 units, a decrease of 11% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
“The automotive industry momentum continues in August as the industry claws back more and more new vehicle sales each month since sales bottomed out in April,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “When you take into consideration that part of Labor Day weekend fell in August last year and this year it’s fully falling in September, it’s an even better story, with sales only dipping slightly year-over-year. When it comes to retail sales, we are consistently seeing that the automakers with the strongest SUV, crossover and truck lineups coupled with healthy inventory levels are continuing to outpace the brands that do not.”
“Used vehicle sales are actually up year-over-year, as consumers turn toward the used car market for cost savings during these uncertain economic times, and also due to some supply shortages on the new vehicle side,” added Lyman. “While this heightened demand is creating upward pressure on used retail prices, it is making it a great time for consumers to get top value on a trade-in on popular used vehicles.”
Additional Insights:
- Total retail sales for August 2020 are expected to be down 11% from a year ago and up 6% from July 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for August 2020 are expected to be down 41% from a year and up 8% from July 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Total SAAR is expected to decrease 11% from a year ago from 16.8 million units to 15 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for August 2020 are expected to reach 3.6 million, up 4% from a year ago and up 2% from July 2020.
“While retail sales for most automakers are up month-over-month, Kia is setting itself apart from the pack, as one of the only automakers that is up year-over-year,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM Analytics at TrueCar. “Most of Kia’s portfolio is back to selling at pre-Covid-19 levels. Despite the Telluride, one of their most popular models, being in short-supply, Kia’s strong lineup with some of their newer SUV products such as the recently launched Seltos, is contributing to their strong gains.”
“Volkswagen is also showing strong recovery, thanks to its strong incentive offerings for consumers. While many automakers are scaling back on zero percentage offers for 84 months, Volkswagen is presenting one of the stronger programs to consumers with zero percentage financing for up-to 72 months on most VW models,” added Woolard. “Volkswagen’s strong crossover lineup with the Atlas Cross Sport and 3-Row Tiguan are successfully contributing to the industry’s appetite for utility vehicles.”
August 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume.
Total Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | Aug 2020 Forecast | Aug 2019 Actual | Jul 2020 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | MoM % Change | MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 21,578 | 29,477 | 22,711 | -26.8% | -21.2% | -5.0% | -5.0% |
| Daimler | 21,927 | 30,218 | 26,850 | -27.4% | -21.9% | -18.3% | -18.3% |
| FCA | 169,959 | 215,240 | 157,025 | -21.0% | -15.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% |
| Ford | 181,845 | 209,953 | 174,978 | -13.4% | -6.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| GM | 228,906 | 289,475 | 204,756 | -20.9% | -14.8% | 11.8% | 11.8% |
| Honda | 132,290 | 173,993 | 125,450 | -24.0% | -18.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% |
| Hyundai | 59,614 | 65,494 | 58,934 | -9.0% | -2.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| Kia | 56,421 | 60,730 | 52,479 | -7.1% | 0.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Nissan | 78,623 | 127,230 | 73,463 | -38.2% | -33.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| Subaru | 48,508 | 70,039 | 51,458 | -30.7% | -25.4% | -5.7% | -5.7% |
| Tesla | 16,035 | 13,200 | 15,800 | 21.5% | 30.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Toyota | 188,251 | 248,334 | 168,791 | -24.2% | -18.4% | 11.5% | 11.5% |
| Volkswagen Group | 51,551 | 61,965 | 47,724 | -16.8% | -10.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Industry | 1,303,826 | 1,649,669 | 1,227,420 | -21.0% | -14.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% |
Retail Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | Aug 2020 Forecast | Aug 2019 Actual | Jul 2020 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | MoM % Change | MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 20,575 | 27,091 | 22,156 | -24.1% | -18.2% | -7.1% | -7.1% |
| Daimler | 21,473 | 28,693 | 26,006 | -25.2% | -19.4% | -17.4% | -17.4% |
| FCA | 149,016 | 168,665 | 138,095 | -11.6% | -4.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% |
| Ford | 141,102 | 168,704 | 135,056 | -16.4% | -9.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| GM | 194,754 | 229,693 | 175,013 | -15.2% | -8.7% | 11.3% | 11.3% |
| Honda | 131,652 | 172,717 | 124,883 | -23.8% | -17.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Hyundai | 55,478 | 60,120 | 54,881 | -7.7% | -0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Kia | 54,901 | 53,825 | 51,508 | 2.0% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Nissan | 73,019 | 91,244 | 67,023 | -20.0% | -13.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% |
| Subaru | 47,496 | 68,834 | 50,184 | -31.0% | -25.7% | -5.4% | -5.4% |
| Tesla | 16,023 | 13,200 | 15,788 | 21.4% | 30.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Toyota | 182,566 | 240,706 | 166,235 | -24.2% | -18.3% | 9.8% | 9.8% |
| Volkswagen Group | 51,073 | 60,399 | 46,312 | -15.4% | -8.9% | 10.3% | 10.3% |
| Industry | 1,187,140 | 1,437,022 | 1,119,378 | -17.4% | -11.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% |
Fleet Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | Aug 2020 Forecast | Aug 2019 Actual | Jul 2020 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | MoM % Change | MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 1,003 | 2,386 | 555 | -58.0% | -54.7% | 80.8% | 80.8% |
| Daimler | 454 | 1,525 | 844 | -70.2% | -67.9% | -46.2% | -46.2% |
| FCA | 20,943 | 46,575 | 18,930 | -55.0% | -51.6% | 10.6% | 10.6% |
| Ford | 40,743 | 41,249 | 39,922 | -1.2% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| GM | 34,152 | 59,782 | 29,743 | -42.9% | -38.5% | 14.8% | 14.8% |
| Honda | 638 | 1,276 | 567 | -50.0% | -46.2% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Hyundai | 4,137 | 5,374 | 4,053 | -23.0% | -17.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| Kia | 1,519 | 6,905 | 971 | -78.0% | -76.3% | 56.4% | 56.4% |
| Nissan | 5,604 | 35,986 | 6,440 | -84.4% | -83.2% | -13.0% | -13.0% |
| Subaru | 1,012 | 1,205 | 1,274 | -16.0% | -9.5% | -20.6% | -20.6% |
| Tesla | 12 | - | 12 | - | - | -1.4% | -1.4% |
| Toyota | 5,685 | 7,628 | 2,556 | -25.5% | -19.7% | 122.5% | 122.5% |
| Volkswagen Group | 478 | 1,566 | 1,412 | -69.5% | -67.1% | -66.2% | -66.2% |
| Industry | 116,686 | 212,647 | 108,042 | -45.1% | -40.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
Fleet Penetration
| Manufacturer | Aug 2020 Forecast | Aug 2019 Actual | Jul 2020 Actual | YoY % Change | MoM % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 4.6% | 8.1% | 2.4% | -42.6% | 90.3% |
| Daimler | 2.1% | 5.0% | 3.1% | -59.0% | -34.1% |
| FCA | 12.3% | 21.6% | 12.1% | -43.1% | 2.2% |
| Ford | 22.4% | 19.6% | 22.8% | 14.0% | -1.8% |
| GM | 14.9% | 20.7% | 14.5% | -27.8% | 2.7% |
| Honda | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | -34.2% | 6.7% |
| Hyundai | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | -15.4% | 0.9% |
| Kia | 2.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | -76.3% | 45.5% |
| Nissan | 7.1% | 28.3% | 8.8% | -74.8% | -18.7% |
| Subaru | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 21.3% | -15.8% |
| Tesla | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | - | -2.8% |
| Toyota | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.5% | -1.7% | 99.5% |
| Volkswagen Group | 0.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | -63.3% | -68.7% |
| Industry | 8.9% | 12.9% | 8.8% | -30.6% | 1.7% |
Total Market Share
| Manufacturer | Aug 2020 Forecast | Aug 2019 Actual | Jul 2020 Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% |
| Daimler | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% |
| FCA | 13.1% | 13.0% | 12.8% |
| Ford | 14.0% | 12.7% | 14.3% |
| GM | 17.6% | 17.5% | 16.7% |
| Honda | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.2% |
| Hyundai | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% |
| Kia | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.3% |
| Nissan | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.0% |
| Subaru | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| Tesla | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.3% |
| Toyota | 14.5% | 15.1% | 13.8% |
| Volkswagen Group | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% |
Retail Market Share
| Manufacturer | Aug 2020 Forecast | Aug 2019 Actual | Jul 2020 Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% |
| Daimler | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| FCA | 12.6% | 11.7% | 12.3% |
| Ford | 11.9% | 11.7% | 12.1% |
| GM | 16.5% | 16.0% | 15.6% |
| Honda | 11.1% | 12.0% | 11.2% |
| Hyundai | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% |
| Kia | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% |
| Nissan | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% |
| Subaru | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% |
| Tesla | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% |
| Toyota | 15.4% | 16.8% | 14.9% |
| Volkswagen Group | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in Canada since 1981.
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry’s most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what’s a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free), Email: pr@truecar.com.
TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali
shadee@truecar.com
424.258.8694